How NYC's 'Pizza Principle' Has Disappeared Amid Years Of Rising Costs

Among the staggering number of restaurants in New York City, some of the most prominent may be NY-style pizza places. When one thinks of The Big Apple, the intricate subway system may also come to mind. While these city staples may sound like they're completely unrelated, they have a fascinating tie that has persisted across decades.

In 1980, a New York Times reporter wrote about a strange occurrence — when pizza prices rose and fell, so did subway fares. This phenomenon, reportedly observed all the way back to the 1960s, showed that a slice of pizza and one ride token tended to cost almost the same at any given time. The curious trend was aptly named the "Pizza Principle." Although perhaps originally meant as humor, many columnists and even economists have used the Pizza Principle to predict or monitor the cost of living and inflation in New York City. It was shockingly accurate even into the 2000s.

Unfortunately, around the COVID-19 outbreak, the price of a pizza slice and subway fare diverged in a big way when pizza prices began to skyrocket. Now, even a simple slice of cheese pizza, called a "plain slice" according to proper NYC pizza etiquette, costs an average of around $4. By comparison, the price of a subway ride is $3. This dollar difference may not seem huge, but it's enough that the two prices no longer correlate as they did before. In fact, some trace the origins of the split back to 2015, when subway fare was briefly higher. However, pizza prices began to pull ahead in 2021.

For decades, pizza slices in New York City were notoriously inexpensive. The dollar slice was a phenomenon all its own, with pizza joints including the word "dollar" or "99 cent" in their names. These were basic slices — cheese or pepperoni — and their under-a-buck costs helped keep the average New York slice price low. Now, just like these once-popular pizza styles are slowly disappearing, that low price isn't sustainable anymore. Ingredient prices are steadily rising. Even if a restaurant has "99 cents" in its name, it may charge over $2 for a slice. There are a handful of true dollar slice shops left, but you'll have to really hunt for them.

Another factor is that New York officials instituted a freeze on transit fares. But at the beginning of 2026, the cost to ride the subway and bus rose to $3 per person. With pizza prices rising, this freeze meant slice prices and ride fares could no longer align.

Will we ever see a re-emergence of the Pizza Principle? It is possible. With the cost of cheese falling since 2025 due to oversupply, it's not unreasonable to think that some pizza spots might be able to lower their prices a tiny bit. We also may see subway fares rise again to meet pizza fees in the coming years. It's impossible to know for sure, but as of right now, it's safe to say that the Pizza Principle is one New York tradition we can no longer rely on.